Monday, September 20, 2010

Clearing the Air of this 3rd Party Split Myth for Good ... Part II

In a previous post you might have read about simple portions of primary pie defeating smaller ones.
Simple.  What follows is the use of historical data outside of this seasons primary, in which 82% voted Republican, and how other elections can be used to show the same exact thing.
A Third Party Split is a Mathematical Impossibility in Wyoming.

Because of Math.
Oh how we all love Math.  The Democrats use it to point out the flaws of the Republican ideas, the Republicans use it to point out flaws in the Democratic ideas ... And round and round we go.  One day it's their fault, the next it's theirs.  And here we are - today - in Wyoming when you can't hardly tell the difference between them.

But these numbers won't help a political party, it will hurt them because it will break down the walls and let the light in.  These numbers will help break down the fear in people that parties have been feeding on for years to keep the people party dedicated, to secure votes.

It is real easy to control the people when all 'we the people' have is the lesser of two evils.  The big party players know how to play the game when they can control the results.  But these numbers, these numbers take away that control and empower the voter ...  with confidence.

'Cause Math don't lie.

The Republican Party of Wyoming is either avoiding these truths like the plaque because they need a lesson in Math 101, just flat out avoiding Haynes because he is the true conservative who sticks to the constitution, or perhaps it is that they fear the combination ... that BOTH are true.   ???

Let's leave that up for question for now and get to the facts.
-- It is mathematically impossible for Haynes to split a Republican vote and have a Democrat win.
-- If the 82% out of the primary were split, 41% still beats the 18% who voted for the democrat.

Still not convinced?
Let's just talk raw numbers then.

There are 259,833 total registered voters in Wyoming:
156,160 Republicans, 65,832 Democrats, and 37,841 unaffiliated.
So just raw base voters that's 60.1% R, 25.3% D, and 14.5% Unaffiliated.

So let's say Wyoming is charged up enough to get 100% voter turn out with Haynes and Mead splitting the Republican vote raw (156,160 / 2) ...
78,080 votes to Mead, 78,080 votes to Haynes and 65,832 votes to the Democrat.
Democrat still loses.

"But you forgot the 37,000 ..."  just hold onto your knickers for a minute.
Now let's throw into the equation that the large mood of America is “mad as hell” at the failed liberal  policies, emulated with Bush and exacerbated by Obama --- and ask yourself, where will the moderates lean?  Should we use the 61% who favor repeal of the Health Care Bill? 
What are really the chances?
Say the Unaffiliated splits, Even Steven, 50/50 ... still no change in the loser.

So - by our application of Raw Math to Voters in Wyoming, the 3rd party split remains a Mathematical Impossibility.

Lets go one more step, just for good measure.  After all, this is what good mathematicians do right?

In what is arguably the most charged political season ever, in 2008, remember?  when the country was falling all over themselves to get Obama elected?
There is no doubt Wyoming felt those legs tingling as well, no?  So let's go there ...

In that 2008 election:
164,948 voted for McCain and 82,868 voted for Barry.
That is literally 2/3rd's and a 1/3rd ....  66% and 33% ...

So in Wyoming - if the people are feeling really liberal and really feeling the Obama love and we get the same kind of high power liberal influence in the vote... EVEN THEN, a Republic split makes an even TIE.  33% ... 33%  ... and 33% to the Democrat.  From a conservatives perspective, with the  political season plagued by liberalism fall-over-yourself-love-of-Barry, in the worst conditions, the worst Wyoming would get is a 3 way tie.

So again - ask yourself - After nearly two years of the nation learning about Obama and what a threat his radical policies are - where do you think the attitude of the state is at?
After nearly 8 years of Gov. Dave policies and watching him chief the bloating of state government while bow down to Washington, the good attorney in him negotiating away Wyoming's independence - where do you think the attitude of the state is at?

In 2008 the R vote carried 66% ...  in the recent primary when 49% of registered voters went to the polls the R vote carried 82%.  You tell me.

So again, a 3rd party split is a mathematical impossibility.  Thank you Math.

So we know it's not about fear in splitting the vote.
So what is this blackballing all about then?
Why is the Republican Party avoiding math and Haynes like the plaque?
-------------------------
-- Who is Taylor Haynes?
-- Part ONE - 3 Candidates Split the Vote : Myth Busted
-- Wyoming Secretary of State - Election Results
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More Reading from WyoPoli ...
-- Fundamental Differences : Haynes & Mead on Taxation
-- Fundamental Differences : Haynes & Mead on Life/Abortion
-- Fundamental Differences : Haynes & Mead on the 2nd Amendment
-- Sheriff Richard Mack Endorses Taylor Haynes for Governor
-- What is Matt Mead hiding? and WHY?

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Compelling Math lesson.

Everyone, for once in your life, "Draw the Line" on sudo conservatives running our state and write in Taylor Haynes for Governor. Lets just see if we still live in a Conservative State come November.

Glenn said...

Wyoming voters have been moving left for years, it is a slow process and most people have no idea it is happening. Mead is presented as a BIG R when he is nothing but a small r at best. All politics are local goes the saying and too many Wyoming communities are governed by groups of small r politicians. Forgot which news outlet stated in their endorsement of Mead that he was as close to Gov Dave as you can get but doesn't that kind of say it all. Gov. Dave is a BIG D. It is time to kick out the establishment politicians whether they are donkey's or elephants, I for one am writing in Taylor Haynes.

Anonymous said...

I will be at the appearing of Taylor Haynes in Rock Springs on Oct. 8th. Looking forward to hear what he has to say. I'm liking what I've seen so far.

Anonymous said...

Do you have a banner with a Link? A few of these would be good statements around WY to get the message out!

Scott said...

This IS a problem. Most good conservatives WORK and haven't had time on their busy schedules to see there is an alternative to Matt Mea(D). We need to plaster Taylor Haynes' name everywhere we can before election day. Talk with friends on social networks...email all our good friends. Let 'em all know we can DO this!!

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