Tuesday, August 31, 2010

3 Candidates Split the Vote : Myth Busted *update

Even if the Republican vote was split in half, the Democrat would lose.
 Still not convinced after you read this? Read Part II : Clearing the Air of the Myth for Good ... Part II

With the recent GOP Primary election results there are 75,064 who did not vote for Matt Mead.
In other words, 71% of the Republican voters want someone else.

Even the Trib reported, in one of their recent polls, "38 percent are either undecided or prefer a different candidate at this time."

If there were three candidates in the race, an even split being 33.33% ... those 38% would be the deciding factor.  After a primary election in which gave Wyoming two democratic choices on the ballot, there is more than just a whimsical dream of chance that a 3rd candidate is still a viable option.

Traditionally, there are only two choices on the ballot : Democrats and Republicans.  Of course, the argument is that this election year has produced two Democrats ...

Matt Mead sent out letters to a highly liberal base - teacher union members.  With his endorsement from the WEA it is obvious that he was granted that mailing list to just over "6,000 members" or "one of every 85 Wyoming citizens."  In his letter he targeted union members: "I would be honored to have your vote in the Republican Primary for Governor on August 17th and I am asking for your help in talking with other voters about supporting me."

To be sickly fair - lets say just 1 of 6 of that specific 6,000 people went out and traded parties for Mead.  That is 1,000 votes.  Mead only won the primary by 714 votes.  Without that democratic base - Rita Meyer may have won instead.

BUT! - However he did it, he did it.  Mead takes the Republican seat for the race for Governor ... and never the less ... there are still only two choices.

STOP!  People don't have to conform to what the ballot says - there is, always has been, and always will be - the option for a write in.

Taylor Haynes, an Independent who fell just shy of  the required petitions to get his name on the ballot,  is STILL ready to take on any challenger ... STILL trying for that Governors seat.

*The big drawback is in the myth - third parties split the vote and the opposition wins.*
That is NOT true in Wyoming.
In this primary election 127,761 people voted.  (This is the most accurate, most recent, attitude of Wyoming voters)
--- 105,336 voted Republican.
--- 22,425 voted Democrat.
In other words ... 82% of the voter base went to the Republican candidate, compared to the 18% of the Democratic vote, that is a crushing political statistic.

So the worry with the newly bonded, propogand-ized unity fest of the waving GOP party is that a new candidate in the race will split the vote of the Republican party and that the Democrat, Leslie Petersen, would win.

-- 41% still defeats 18%.

First off, Mead and Petersen are both Democrats so it doesnt really matter.
Second, we have had Gov. Dave for 8 years, and he is an Obama loving Democrat - so as of now, no matter who wins, Mead or Petersen, we get a democrat back in the chair.
Third, with the option of Taylor Haynes as a write-in - even if he did split the vote 50/50 on the Republican side, the vote count would be:
Haynes - 52,668
Mead - 52,668
Petersen - 22,425

Ok fine ...  we overcompensate and give back ALL 6,000 votes from the Democrats, Liberal Teachers Union who voted for Mead to Petersen ...

Even then you have:
Haynes - 49,668
Mead - 49,668
Petersen - 28,425

New "evidence" - Liberal Blogger - suggests that up to 9,000 democrats switched parties to vote for Mead.  Ok.  Let's even give back a whole 10,000 to the Democrats ...
Voter turn out would be :

Haynes - 47,668 - 37%
Mead - 47,668 - 37%
Petersen - 32,425 - or 25%

It is virtually IMPOSSIBLE for a Democrat to win this race even WITH Taylor Haynes in the mix.
No matter what kind of scare tactics parties will play to hog up votes for themselves, there is NO FEAR in having a third party candidate, Taylor Haynes as a write in.

Question : With a guy who is a strict constitutionalist, what do we have to lose?
Answer : NOTHING.

We have nothing to lose - all to GAIN.
Wyoming CAN BE the shinning light on the rise of the hill.
The biggest challenge is letting people know that they still have the option, to : "draw-the-line" and "write-it-in"

If anything, two months of debate between the three candidates can give people the time to decide.

Consider Taylor Haynes, Independent, for Governor of Wyoming.

It is not impossible ... in fact, very possible.
"Strom Thurmond was elected in 1954 to the United States Senate in South Carolina as a write-in candidate."
-- History: Write-in candidates that have been elected

------ Further Reading --------
**PART II - Clearing the Air of this 3rd Party Split Myth for Good ... Part II

Trib - Election Results
WyoPoli - The Race is Not Over
Trib - Wyoming GOP candidates pledge support for primary winners
WyoPloi - Mead butters up Teachers Union - Can you say, Democrat?


Anonymous said...

Taylor Haynes was a registered Democrat from the early 1980's until after the 2008 presidential election.

Don't believe me? Contact the Laramie County Clerk's office and find out for yourself.

You're all being conned.

Do you really believe that a "true conservative," like Mr. Haynes claims to be, would register as a Democrat during the Reagan years? How about maintaining his registration as a Democrat even during George H.W. Bush's presidency? How about George W. Bush's presidency?

Can we really trust someone who claims to be a "true conservative" while he sided with a political party headed up by the likes of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, John Kerry and Barack Obama?

I didn't think so.

Sean said...

What does any of this have to do with the mathematical fact that the vote can't be split?

Haynes claims to be the only constitutional candidate running for office. And that is true.
if we really want to start weighing in on the past, lets do that too with Mr. Mead.

Haynes was NOT on board with Obama.

Haynes may have voted as a Democrat for years, the still evil of lesser of two evils ... So the guy voted for Democrats.

Mead is the lawyer. He actually has a history of acting against the god given rights of the people ...

perhaps your questions would be good ones to ask this Mr. Haynes at a townhall. Mead avoids the hard questions like these, Haynes will tell you exactly what he believes, who he is, and how he was a Democrat, and what power Wyoming has if we use the constitution.

Being a Republican and supporting Bush and Dick doesn't look all that great on a resume either, anonymous, does it?

And neither does Big World Government Daddy Bush either.

There is no difference between the R and the D anymore ... we either have to get out of the two party "they did it" "No they did it" "yeah but they started it" "WHAT. No You hit me first" "They started it." or we are going to only continue down the same road and be back here in another 4 years having Republicans in Wyoming all voting for the Democrat governor to get him into office because no one can tell the difference.

The real con here is keeping people in the doldrums of R and D two party system without ever realizing that our constitutional rights and processes are supposed to empower the people, not a party.

Lastly, what does being a conservative have to do with party of choice anyways? Or has the Republican party conned you into thinking that conservatives can only be Republicans because right now all democrats are bad.

John F Kennedy was a democrat ... and people loved him. Thomas Jefferson is considered a democrat ... whats with that?

again. I suggest you go see Haynes for yourself and hear what he has to say about things.

Anonymous said...

"You're all being conned"

I think it should be stated by those of vying for Haynes...

"We WERE being conned..." The two party system is a farce and the sooner we ALL realize that - the better off we'll all be.

Anonymous said...

just read this on the Haynes facebook page.
"The person 'Anonymous' who likes to point out that Dr. Haynes was a registered Democrat forgets that so was Ronald Reagan."

Anonymous said...

If not Us - Who?
If not Now - When?

Taylor is Just an Honest, Christian Man trying to make Wyoming like it was and still should be.
He is the only Candidate who will enforce the Constitution as it was originally written!

Lets save Wyoming for our Grandchildren !

Anonymous said...

I am registered as an Independent and I will vote for the best man/woman on election day. The way I see it, if I'm being conned then it will be up to Taylor Haynes to prove that one way or another after the write ins are counted and the polls are closed. Many posters here are right. We have had enough of the party line B.S. WRITE HIM IN!!! Taylor Haynes...all the way. Back to constitutionality.

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